> worth around $5.4trn
Note that the Fed has a $6.7tn balance sheet [1]. (This is a silly comparison. But still fun.)
The real comparison: Nvidia's $500+ billion of investments and commitments [2] is substantially more than any easing the Fed has done in the same time [3]. Monetarily, Nvidia is creating a lot of money in our economy.
The good news: I have seen no evidence Nvidia has borrowed against its stock or otherwise linked its equity value to these commitments. Its stock could crash without causingâas long as its cash flows continueâa credit crisis through its investments and commitments.
[1] https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttren...
[2] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026...
[3] https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttren...
âas long as itâs cash flow continuesâ is doing a lot of optimistic heavy lifting. The whole premise of the circular financing worry is that Nvidia sits in the middle of all the guarantees made to companies like OpenAI. If any of those companies become insolvent, Nvidia is on the hook for it.
Also Nvidia isnât really creating money. The 500B number is third party capital that already exists (BX, Apollo, etc).
Yea, but they would have to become insolvent in a way that makes compute lose value.
The reason Nvidia is comfortable making these deals is because if OpenAI canât use the compute, someone else can.
Granted OpenAI going insolvent likely means a drop in the value of computeâŚ
Compute has already lost value for me. Six months ago I thought you needed a 1T+ model to be useful coding. Now I am able to get by just fine with a 27b model.
I see two factors converging to cause a collapse of this house of cards:
1. People are realizing that what they need isn't more general intelligence, it's more specialization. A small but well tuned coding model, a small but well tuned customer service model, a small but well tuned document explorer.
2. Specialized hardware - TPUs and NPUs - especially coming out of china. The latest GLM model was trained and runs on Huawei hardware. Nvidia is only worth so much because they are the biggest and best provider of the kind of compute needed to run llms, but the export bans mean china has a lot of incentive to topple that monopoly.
The amount of compute we need to do the things llms do is falling rapidly, the number of people who can provide that compute is rising.
> if OpenAI canât use the compute, someone else can.
The problem with that is that OpenAI can only afford to pay for the compute because they are burning investor money (and so are most of OpenAI's biggest clients). They are losing billions. If they stop burning money, nobody else will be there to pay for that compute at OpenAI's cost.
Sure, somebody will probably be able to use these GPUs, they just won't be able to pay nearly as much for them as OpenAI does.
In reality, it's just nowhere near worth as much as OpenAI pays for it. Inflating the cost of compute is part of the problem caused by the circular financing, and if (or maybe when) OpenAI goes, the price of compute will go with them.
Devil's advocate: OpenAI not being able to use compute is highly correlated to many other AI companies not being able to find a meaningful use of this compute.
Failure to take into consideration those kind of correlations ("If my biggest client isn't able to buy it, I would be able to find someone else who will") is one of the principle causes why many risk models turned out to be garbage during the Great Financial Crisis.
The problem is that if OpenAI doesn't want the compute nobody does. All of these companies' demand for compute are correlated. It isn't likely that OpenAI will want less compute in isolation. Furthermore, the circular financing structure means that if OpenAI buys less chips it means that Nvidia has less money to give to say Anthropic to buy more chips and suddenly the exponential growth that circular financing has allowed to grow runs in reverse.
> heavy lifting
Load bearing, heavy lifting... Your comment wasn't LLM-written, either. I think we're starting to see LLMisms infect human writing. I might try to start speaking like this and see if anyone notices. It could be a good gag.
Or you might find out how little people care about AI. Which would not bode well for bearing load.
[dead]
> âas long as itâs cash flow continuesâ is doing a lot of optimistic heavy lifting
It's not. It's stating a condition. For traditional banks, a stock crash can independently trigger a failure.
> whole premise of the circular financing worry is that Nvidia sits in the middle of all the guarantees made to companies like OpenAI. If any of those companies become insolvent, Nvidia is on the hook for it
Sorry, I meant revenues. If Nvidia's revenues stay stable, these commitments aren't a problem. Even if the stock price crashes.
> Nvidia isnât really creating money
It absolutely is. Similar to the way banks create money [1]. The commitments support credit that wouldn't exist without it.
[1] https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/quarterly-...
> It absolutely is. Similar to the way banks create money [1]. The commitments support credit that wouldn't exist without it.
Making a loan/offering credit isn't automatically money creation - the amount of money in the system before and after the loan might be the same. Haven't been following Nvidia all that closely, but it seems a little bit unlikely that they're a commercial bank. Financial chicanery they may be doing but offering deposit accounts would be new territory. The loan has to be made in a very particular way for it to be money creation (notably, in a way that creates new money), and it should be illegal for most people to do that otherwise we'd all be printing our own money instead of the printing being directed to wealthy asset owners first and foremost.
M2 is $21 trillion, which is what the fed signed up to backstop. How much did NVDA sign up to backstop?
> which is what the fed signed up to backstop
No, it's not. M2 includes things like traveler's cheques and money-market funds.
Travelerâs cheques? Who even sells them anymore. American Express was the biggest issuer and they stopped years ago.
Ok how much did the fed sign up to backstop then? Surely itâs more than physical currency
It would also follow that by increasing the money supply significantly theyâre also contributing to inflation a great deal correct? (Given the rest of the economy is not growing at near the same rate as the AI industry)
Maybe a dumb question but how is NVIDIA increasing the total supply of money? Only the fed can actually order more money to be "created". Private companies can only work within the existing supply, that is, their reserves, no?
All debt is money. Anybody can create money, the trick is getting other people to accept it.
Nvidia is vendor financing its output.
An ai company order $100m of GPUs. Nvidia delivers and holds onto that debt as an asset - like a bank loan.
The production company uses AI to create better plant and purchases $100m of AI tokens to do so. The ai company hold that debt like a bank loan
Nvidia requests $100m of production based on its $100m of orders. The production company holds that debt like a bank loan.
You now have a monetary loop. Take a single $10 bank deposit and Nvidia pays the production company, who pays the ai company who pays Nvidia. Run that round the circle a few million times and everybody has been paid.
Rinse and repeat.
> Only the fed can actually order more money to be "created"
No. Most money in modern economies is created by private parties [1].
[1] https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/quarterly-...
> Only the fed can actually order more money to be "created".
If you go to a bank and get a loan, that is literally money that did not exist before you got a loan. People think that you are borrowing money that somebody else put in the bank, but that's not true. Banks can lend out a lot more money than people put into them.
Any time sometime makes a loan at a bank, that money is created. An accompanying debt is also created. It's like matter and antimatter. And when the debt is repaid, the matter and antimatter disappear again.
Regardless of NVIDIA and LLM/AI, the claim that inflation is caused directly, or without-fail, by an increase in money supply - is not well founded. A significant money supply increase may very well have a tiny or possibly even negative price-increasing impact - depending on how money is supplied, to which elements and under what conditions.
Itâs a fair point. Definitely depends on the how. I was figuring that adding $500B to a hot part of the economy while the rest of the economy shrinks might nudge a bit toward inflationary tendency, but at this point itâs hard to say what tenets of economics actually hold since the entire concept of ârational actorsâ went into the dustbin :)
well, M2 money supply is increasing with or without AI industry
Key difference is that these loans, which do increase the money supply and create inflation, are on average productive and profitable and thus deflationary. Quantitative easing is just printing money and often goes towards repaying bad debts, which are unproductive and thus not deflationary, so the inflation (increase in money supply) does not outweigh the deflation (creating of goods)
Monetarily Nvidia isnât creating any money at all.
I've always found it interesting when corporations start acting like public institutions. When traditionally philosophical, social contract ideas apply to things like corporate governance. Or like here, where private structures get powerful and important enough to resemble government structures.
The ideas we deal with when we discuss society and organization aren't exclusive to government, they relate to human nature in general. I wonder if in the future we will have more discussion of power and how to organize it in corporations, similar to what we discuss today about government.
Well the key difference making any superficial similarities fall apart is Nvidia does not have neutral economy-wide goals of maintaining small+stable inflation, near-full employment and stabilizing financial institutions like the Fed does. Nvidia is entirely self interested in protecting their own shareholder value (that includes the incestuous web of investments ultimately ending up spent on their GPUs).
The structure of the Fed is setup the way it is to limit the sort of self-serving, myopic political micromanaging that could be damaging to the economy at large. And, unlike a beneficiary of rapid growth like Nvidia, has (historically) tried to identify potential indicators warning of unsustainable bubbles that could lead to financial contagion and tries to mitigate that risk using the limited monetary tools available and their public soapbox.
A similar decision making structure would potentially be very undesirable to Nvidia shareholders as caution over long time horizons would likely produce what they would consider an excessively conservative, defensive strategy to avoid putting too much air into the bubble too quickly (at the expense of their valuation).
Corporations certainly don't have the same goals government does, but human nature applies universally.
I'm not saying that corporations should have exactly the same rules and structure as government does, but perhaps many of the ideas used to design governments can be borrowed.
I would love for good governance principles to seep into corporations rather than the other way around. Seems about time the direction reversed.
USA is trying to become corporatocracy
In a country without religion, banner or ideology to unite the people in current-and-coming turbulent times, the bet is made on "unite under money, or have no money left"
the way to fight it is to be principled even in front of cheaper options - and to support others like you
To be clear: I'm not trying to advocate for more corporate power.
The governments of today weren't formed out of "discussions of power"
The American Revolution was very much a discussion about power. Of course, it wasn't just a discussion (we had to fight a war to defend the new form of government), but it was driven by the same concerns about the distribution of power.
Yeah its soooo interesting! Totally not dystopian, just soooo interesting and fascinating to ponder these scenarios in which corporations hold equal power to national governments!
Just such a curious scenario to let your mind wander about, how society would look like in these scenarios!
/s
I'm honestly so sick of the suspense of disbelief on this site, how is this more "interesting" to you, than the absolute sheer terror you should feel about going back to feudalism and serfdom? A typical western national state ensures that you have basic rights as a human being and aren't exploited to the death by non-government entities.
You're catastrophizing and misreading the original comment in an uncharitable way.
I'm not advocating for corporations to have equal power with governments, though. I think that's generally a terrible idea.
Looking at any organization with power and people involved, perhaps we can use the same ideas that traditionally apply to government in more places. That's all I'm saying.
This is not some mindless intellectual exercise to distract from how things are. In fact, as a proposal for how to reform corporate power, it's the opposite.
(Also, even though I think corporate power should be limited to a very specific arm of society, and that we shouldn't encourage more corporate power, you are greatly exaggerating. Feudalism and the abolition of human rights are not right around the corner.)
Lighten up
I wonder when they will give up on the gaming market because that could take down several publishers and developers. I really don't think it's an if question but a when because it almost feels like an afterthought at this point (they removed the standalone gaming revenue report from the financial reports this summer). Also I don't think AMD and Intel is capable "to step in" to replace them.
AMD would step in, they where behind nvidia but they've been closing that gap for a while and the 9070XT is the current value king (in this fucked up market) for mid-high gaming and you can actually buy them.
Demand for Nvidia cards has outstripped supply even on the mid-high cards specifically because they do better with local models than AMD cards with the same VRAM do broadly.
AI has completely broken the PC gaming market (and PC/Laptop market more broadly but gaming is really hit hard because it's the exact components that matter for both that overlap).
Nvidia had the mind share among gamers but so did Intel once, inertia only lasts so long they've been thoroughly intent on burning that to the ground for a while, back to the post 1080's
If RDNA5 is good (and 4 was it closed the gap on RT) they'll been in a solid place to take the spot if Nvidia do cede the ground.
I have a 7900XTX the last flagship card AMD did (about equal to a 9070XT for raster but 24GB VRAM not 16GB) and it has been and is a stellar card for gaming (let down only if you care about RT and the games I play don't have it).
Flawless under Linux, weaker on the AI behind nvidia but it runs Qwen surprisingly well and I didn't and don't care too much about that except to poke it occasionally.
Cryptocurrency mining had it broken before that. PC gaming's golden years are behind us, as AI, even if not LLMs, seems like it's not going away, so the gaming market is now the niche hobby while AI takes center stage.
RIP. My first gaming ~GPU~ (we called them 3d accelerators back then) was a Diamond Monster II with a 3dfx Voodoo 2 chip.
I'm not sure (pc) gaming could ever really actually pay for the continued advancement and mass production of state of the art silicon.
The prices of gpus are nuts right now due to demand, but theoretically speaking demand causes more supply to appear and thus decrease prices* and then gamers can reap the benefits of massive amounts of investment.
* or at least thats what people on this site keep telling me.
> Diamond Monster II with a 3dfx Voodoo 2 chip
Oh shit, I had file deleted that. I remember now. I think I used that with the first N64 emulator, I think Project something to play Turok the first person dinosaur hunter game. Life before the internet was better I think.
> Also I don't think AMD and Intel is capable "to step in" to replace them.
It's kind of weird. nVidia kind of has the PC market cornered, but AMD has had the last couple of generations of Xbox and Playstation. Also, they power the Steam Deck/Machine, and Valve has been contributing a lot of AMD graphics features into the Linux drivers. There is a world where AMD (and maybe even Linux on AMD specifically) becomes the de facto standard for gaming.
Well AMD does have the Steam Machine now, they really like doing console integrations. Shame it won't really sell given the pricing situation.
> It's kind of weird. nVidia kind of has the PC market cornered, but AMD has had the last couple of generations of Xbox and Playstation
I have been getting the vibes that Sony is positioning themselves to back out of videogames. I don't think we're going to see a PS6.
There will be a PS6 and a NextBox⌠itâs just that Sony is cracking down on what some idiot MBAs have decided are âunrealized monitary streamsâ.
Maybe this is silly of me, but maybe gaming would enjoy an era of hardware upgrades being rather unviable so the focus turns to optimization and aesthetic.
This is basically already the case in the flourishing indie space, but for different reasons.
The only developers chasing cutting-edge hardware features are the AAA studios and I honestly think a lot of them would just die before successfully relearning how to make games that play well instead of just look pretty.
The thing is really that even entry level gaming is getting expensive. I was considering building a pc and everything is expensive, I was going to replace the disk of my ps4 thag I bought used for 100$ and the 1tb ssd costs 150$
Is $150 a lot in the grand scheme of hobbies?
That'll buy you:
- a set of used golf clubs
- a couple years of fishing licenses, bait, tackle, used fishing rods and line
- a couple really entry level tennis rackets, balls, and court reservation fees
- maybe a used bicycle
- a decent pair of running shoes from last year
It will be interesting times but I don't think anyone will enjoy a plateau because it's expensive. Even replacing existing hardware is expensive now. Hardly enjoyabe.
A retraction from the gaming market wouldn't necessarily mean they'd still even produce the current crop of products. I could (and I would argue would) involve a complete shuttering of the GeForce brand, halting current production. On the assumption that Intel and AMD would follow, that wouldn't be an end of upgrades, but an end to the market.
Gaming is a larger market than Hollywood. Maybe it becomes a distraction for Nvidia, but someone will step in. That might actually be a good thing and why Nvidia wont do that: it creates an under served market in which newcomers can cut their teeth.
They're advertising DLSS5 just now though.
> I really don't think it's an if question but a when because it almost feels like an afterthought
I feel your reasoning is very weird. Are they losing money by selling consumer GPU? Just because the profit isn't that much compared to AI it doesn't mean that it's negative, and for-profit companies are not known for leaving money on the table. Apple doesn't reveal how much Apple TV+ makes for them either but I don't see it be gone anytime soon.
NVidia is limited by the number of chips they can produce.
If you can fab 1000 chips, and can sell some for $500 and some for $80000 what are you going to do?
The game GPU is at once profitable, but causes them to give up far more profits than they're gaining from it.
They're maintaining the game market to have multiple markets and not go all in, but it's strategic hedging at this point. When NVidia makes a gaming GPU instead of a data center GPU they are leaving money on the table in the short term since they're constrained at the fab level.
This almost seems like we need a strategic reserve for semiconductors- kinda like we have it for food, to prevent suppliers from throwing it away when they are suddenly able to sell something much more lucrative.
An alternative example would be Apple & the Mini 12 & 13. They made money on those, too, but here we are.
Which is distinctly different both in purpose and technology than the previous versions. DLSS 5 is no longer about frame improvements. Itâs about increasing graphical fidelity with active AI rendering.
DLSS 5 is trying to relight and retexture the scene using AI. DLSS 4 is just trying to take a lower quality image and upscale it using AI
Thank for explaining what DLSS5 is! I don't think it has anything to do with "Nvidia is going to give up gaming market" narrative though.
Nvidia is limited by the number of engineers they have. It might turn out that the AI market is so lucrative that itâs best to reallocate their gaming-focused engineers to AI.
Apple TV is at least a growth market for them, whereas gaming is sort of capped and clearly a tiny piece of nvidiaâs revenue atm.
Cracks are starting to appear. Open Ai and Anthropic are publicly asking for slowdown in AI research. Translation: We see this technology not being any more useful than what it is now, no AGI is coming, and the first one to accept this and slow down the dollar burn rate will incur the wrath of the market. So let's say this big boogey man technology will end all life on earth and we all slow down together. Bonus points if we can lobby for this to be included in the national security bucket. Then US govt can bail us out. Yay!
If Nvidia is the bank, they should be starting to sweat a bit. It's not often companies ask for a voluntary slowdown.
> So let's say this big boogey man technology will end all life on earth and we all slow down together.
The first messenger from Anthropic is out with this exact message. Stop us (them) or everyone will be killed by 2030
It's always funny to me when they do the fear-propaganda, e.g. A statement like "There's a 10% chance that AI will destroy humanity in a decade". If a government were for the people, it can reasonably react with "Okay - if that's the case, you should shut down. And if not you will be arrested. Because if this is true, you're willingly building equivalent of a nuclear bomb."
It feels like there's should be some sort of "demonstrable intent to do harm" statute on the books for situations like this.
If you have a genuinely-held belief that AI systems will end life on earth and you willfully continuing working on them anyway, then, like... you probably shouldn't be allowed to walk free in civil society anymore, right?
> you're willingly building equivalent of a nuclear bomb
Not just building but actively testing
Yeah, I've worked in risk management and if a company said "what we're doing has a 10% chance of killing lots of people" it'd get shut down so fast it'd make your head spin
The frontier companies asking for regulation is somehow one of their less insane marketing ploy to date
Thank you
>Nvidiaâs financial engineering is partly a response to its biggest customersâ transformation into rivals. âHyperscalersâ, tech giants such as Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft, account for roughly half of Nvidiaâs revenue
Companies just don't want to pay Jensen's tax. Hyperscalers might still pay Jensen's tax for LLM training but for inference. you don't have to. they are also betting on their own chip for training to replace Nvidia.
this is Nvidia panicking and doing vendor fiance to Neoclouds and buying Hugging Face. even none hyperscalers like Meta is betting on its own chip for AI inference.
It would be more accurate to say Nvidia is the central bank of data center projects. The vast majority of capex associated with AI is for data centers, not the actual technology. Nvidia needs to create data center projects to sell to, hence its role in financing them.
I am a bit confused at people looking at this negatively. If Nvidia believes AI demand is extraordinarily high, and that it requires a large capital outlay to serve that capital, isn't this what they should be doing?
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